基于贝叶斯网络的船舶港口国监督检查滞留风险研究

针对港口国监督(Port State Control, PSC)检查的复杂性和不确定性, 基于贝叶斯网络理论构建船舶PSC检查滞留风险分析模型. 以东京备忘录(Tokyo MOU)中2014~2017年船舶PSC检查样本数据为基础, 运用R语言bnlearn包进行贝叶斯网络的结构及参数学习. 同时分别执行贝叶斯网络的正向、逆向推理, 定量表示各风险因素与滞留结果之间的相互作用关系, 找出导致船舶滞留的高风险因素, 实现不确定环境下船舶PSC检查滞留风险的全面动态分析. 实证表明, 模型具有较高的精确度, 可为检查人员的滞留决策及航运公司的安全风险管理提供有效依据.     

非齐次动力学方程的一种精细积分单步方法

针对非齐次动力学方程■,结合精细积分法和微分求积法,利用同阶的显式龙格-库塔法对计算过程中待求的v_(k+i/s)(i=1,2,…,s)进行预估,提出了一种避免状态矩阵求逆的高效精细积分单步方法。该方法采用精细积分法计算e~(Ht),而Duhamel积分项采用s级s阶的时域微分求积法,计算格式统一且易于编程,可灵活实现变阶变步长。仿真结果表明,与其他单步法及预估校正-辛时间子域法进行数值比较,该方法具有高精度、高效率及良好的稳定性,在求解大规模动力系统时间响应问题中具有较大的优势。     

On the Variability of Heart Rate Variability—Evidence from Prospective Study of Healthy Young College Students

Heart rate variability (HRV) has been widely used as indices for autonomic regulation, including linear analyses, entropy and multi-scale entropy based nonlinear analyses, and however, it is strongly influenced by the conditions under which the signal is being recorded. To investigate the variability of healthy HRV under different settings, we recorded electrocardiograph (ECG) signals from 56 healthy young college students (20 h for each participant) at campus using wearable single-lead ECG device. Accurate R peak to R peak (RR) intervals were extracted by combing the advantages of five commonly used R-peak detection algorithms to eliminate data quality influence. Thorough and detailed linear and nonlinear HRV analyses were performed. Variability of HRV metrics were evaluated from five categories: (1) different states of daily activities; (2) different recording time period in the same day during free-running daily activities; (3) body postures of sitting and lying; (4) lying on the left, right and back; and (5) gender influence. For most of the analyzed HRV metrics, significant differences (p < 0.05) were found among different recording conditions within the five categories except lying on different positions. Results suggested that the standardization of ECG data collection and HRV analysis should be implemented in HRV related studies, especially for entropy and multi-scale entropy based analyses. Furthermore, this preliminary study provides reference values of HRV indices under various recording conditions of healthy young subjects that could be useful information for different applications (e.g., health monitoring and management).     

大数据背景下水厂自动投矾模型研究

根据某市自来水有限责任公司第二水厂的历史矾耗数据，建立矾耗流量关于原水浊度、温度等的动态矾耗模型. 通过对数据进行处理得到10900个合格且净水效果高效的数据，将筛选出的数据分为训练样本集和测试样本集. 在回归拟合中，通过拟合R2的大小将原水浊度划分为“低浊”“中浊”“高浊”3个区间，利用泰勒展开公式的非线性变量代换分别对3个区间建立不同的多项式回归模型，得到预测正确率约为72%，总的矾耗流量值约减少了9.6%的结果；在随机森林模型中，使用10900个合格数据，利用训练样本集，以“原水浊度”“pH值”“原水流量”和“水温”为输入变量，建立包含2000棵决策树的随机森林模型，得到预测正确率约为44. 21%，总的矾耗流量值增加了0.04%的结果. 从模型对合格数据的拟合优度看，随机森林模型比非线性回归模型效果更好；在平均绝对误差、平均绝对偏差百分比等评价指标上，前者均优于后者；但从历史数据检验的结果，模型的可解读性，模型的操作难度和推广角度看，分段二元非线性回归模型的优势更为突出.     

Multi-phase transformation kinetics of HSLA steels during continuous cooling: experiments and cellular automaton (CA) simulation

ABSTRACT

Kinetics of multiply ferrite/bainite phase transformation of HSLA steels is investigated by experiments and cellular automaton (CA) simulation. Peak-differentiation method to elucidate the sequential ferrite and bainite phase transformation individually, which is verified by the CA simulation. Such CA modelling executed using classic JMAK theory, but also gives an insight of microstructure evolution of the multi-phase transformation routine on different cooling rate. From that, it enables classic JMAK modelling to capture the detached phase transformation with different growth models and interface-migration mechanisms. Also, we find that the final phase constitution is sensitive to the cooling rate. With increasing the cooling rate, bainite sheaves nucleated at prior austenite boundaries and ferrite/austenite interfaces are significantly facilitated, which seriously inhibits the growth of prior ferrites. The scenario can be interpreted by the CA simulation and the influence of the cooling rate on sequential multi-phase transformation can be also obtained.     

Effects of pressure rise rate on laminar flame speed under normal and engine-relevant conditions

Laminar flame speed (LFS) is one of the most important physicochemical properties of a combustible mixture. At normal and elevated temperatures and pressures, LFS can be measured using propagating spherical flames in a closed chamber. LFS is also used in certain turbulent premixed flame modelling for combustion in spark ignition engines. Inside the closed chamber or engine, transient pressure rise occurs during the premixed flame propagation. The effects of pressure rise rate (PRR) on LFS are examined numerically in this study. One-dimensional simulations are conducted for spherical flame propagation in a closed chamber. Detailed chemistry and transport are considered. Different values of PRR at the same temperature and pressure are achieved through changing the spherical chamber size. It is found that the effect of PRR on LFS is negligible under the normal and engine-relevant conditions considered in this study. This observation is then explained through the comparison between the unsteady and convection terms in the energy equation for a premixed flame.     

Dynamic analysis and regulation of the flexible pipe conveying fluid with a hard-magnetic soft segment

Applied Mathematics and Mechanics - The recently developed hard-magnetic soft (HMS) materials can play a significant role in the actuation and control of medical devices, soft robots, flexible...     

Various solution methods,accompanied by dynamic investigation,for the same problem as a means for enriching the mathematical toolbox

A geometrical task is presented with multiple solutions using different methods, in order to show the connection between various branches of mathematics and to highlight the importance of providing the students with an extensive ‘mathematical toolbox’. Investigation of the property that appears in the task was carried out using a computerized tool.     

通过不对称氢转移/动态动力学拆分合成碳环N^3-嘌呤核苷

N^3-嘌呤核苷由于可能同时被嘌呤和嘧啶代谢酶识别,因而有望作为双靶点药物应用于抗病毒治疗.报道了一种以α-(N^3-嘌呤)取代的环烷酮为原料,通过不对称氢转移反应实现动态动力学拆分,高收率高立体选择性地合成系列碳环N^3-嘌呤核苷化合物.该催化体系也适用于α-嘧啶取代的环烷酮底物,且产物通过进一步衍生,合成了2’-F-,Ac S-,N^3-修饰的碳环嘧啶核苷.